Is there a chance for success in the new US-Iran nuclear negotiations?

Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the Iran nuclear deal. Now he wants to make a new agreement on his own terms.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran Nuclear Agreement, was heralded as one of the greatest diplomatic successes of its time. However, just three years later, then-U.S. President Donald Trump declared it a "bad deal," as he had for years, and pulled his country out of the agreement, claiming he could do better. The U.S. withdrawal did not completely destroy the JCPOA, but it further inflamed U.S.-Iran tensions and made it more difficult for the European members to keep the agreement alive. Now Trump claims that 'direct' talks have begun between Washington and Tehran for a new agreement that would prevent Iran from enriching uranium to 90 percent. During a press conference in the Oval Office on Monday, attended by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump promised that a "very big meeting" would take place in Oman this Saturday to kick off this process, which could theoretically prevent the expected direct attack by the Israeli army on Iran's nuclear facilities. According to Scott Lucas, an international relations professor at University College Dublin who specializes in U.S.-Middle East relations, it is not easy to see what these talks hope to achieve in reality. Speaking to Euronews, Lucas said, "The main issue here is what kind of demands Trump will make regarding the nuclear program." He added, "Are we going back to 2015, when the Iranians gave up their 20 percent stock and limited enrichment to 3.67? Trump was not satisfied with that in 2018, so what more can the Iranians do, especially now that we are starting from a more advanced nuclear position?" Lucas noted, "They have produced enriched uranium at 60 percent, and they probably have the capacity to go above 90 percent." He emphasized, "It may not be possible to put the genie back in the bottle in terms of returning to 2015 conditions."

As was clearly seen during the second half of Trump's first presidency, the risks of failing to reach an agreement are high. After withdrawing from the nuclear deal, Trump was nearly pushing the U.S. and Iran into full-blown conflict. In June 2019, after Iran shot down a drone, he ordered airstrikes on Iranian targets but canceled the strikes while the planes were still in the air, claiming he did so after learning that 150 people could die. Then, in January 2020, they killed Qassem Soleimani, one of the country's top military figures, in a drone strike. Iran responded with missile attacks on Middle Eastern bases housing U.S. personnel, and a major explosion seemed imminent for a brief period. But just five days later, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards "accidentally" shot down a Ukrainian passenger plane. It took a few days for Iranian officials to explain what had happened to the public, but the incident immediately led to anti-government protests. While the Tehran regime managed to survive, the sudden tensions with the U.S. effectively subsided.

Difficult days in Tehran In the years since then, Iran has faced significant challenges. It was hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic early and severely, and the sanctions and economic issues it faced made responding to the spread of the virus difficult. There have been waves of anti-government protests, particularly as young Iranians have gained more confidence in expressing their anger over authorities' often brutal treatment of women and their crackdown on democracy. Meanwhile, Israel's wars with Hamas and Hezbollah have dealt heavy blows to Iran's two most important non-state allies, and Washington is now bombing another, the Houthi rebels in Yemen. In this context, the Trump administration is restarting nuclear negotiations. As the official talks approach this weekend, Lucas points out the difference in approach between the two sides. Speaking to Euronews, Lucas said, "The Iranians are sending their foreign ministers, showing how serious they are about this." "Trump, on the other hand, is sending his real estate buddy Steve Witkoff, who is supposedly a Middle East envoy and was later the ambassador to Russia. In a recent interview with Tucker Carlson, he said that Putin 'really cares' about Trump and prayed for him after the assassination attempts." On the other hand, according to Lucas, the fundamentals of the issue are quite simple. "Even though the religious leader has clearly said, 'We will not negotiate with a bully,' this is similar to the situation in which Iran managed to convince the religious leader to negotiate in 2013 when (then-President Hassan) Rouhani was in power due to the economy." "What they want is the lifting of sanctions. They want to be able to trade, to reconnect with the international system." "There is not much that the U.S. can offer. The main issue is what the sticks are," Lucas stated.

The storm is gathering In public statements, Trump has not hesitated to issue threats, however vague. In a statement on Monday, he said, "If the talks with Iran are not successful, I think Iran will be in great danger." Trump's potential return to the presidency has already begun to create new pressure on Tehran: The extensive tariff policies and the resulting trade war have already caused turmoil in global markets and oil prices. Lucas said, "Iran's economy is in big trouble and inflation continues to rise." "They officially say it is just below 35 percent, but unofficially it is likely much higher, especially for food and basic necessities." "Since November, the currency has absolutely lost value, and the infrastructure is really in poor condition, and now they will be affected by falling oil prices due to Trump's tariff adventure," he added. However, while the new global economic crisis may soon hurt Iran directly and sharply, any talks will be overshadowed by another issue: Washington's increasing withdrawal from guaranteeing the security of its allies, and as a result, discussions about the proliferation of nuclear weapons among its allies.