Could the chaos created by Trump's tariffs lead to a closer relationship between the EU and China?

The chaos arising from Donald Trump's tariffs has fueled speculation that a rapprochement between the European Union and China is imminent. However, the realities may hinder this.

Is China a "significant partner" in overcoming the greatest challenges of our time, or a "key supporter" behind the largest armed conflict on European soil since 1945? It depends on whom you ask. Trump's return to the White House has triggered seismic changes worldwide, forcing nations to reassess their alliances and rivalries in a desperate quest for refuge against the president's audacious policies. In particular, the extensive tariffs have deeply unsettled governments, prompting them to seriously consider whether the trade flows and supply chains they have relied on for decades could collapse overnight and cause untold damage. For the European Union, a center of export-oriented power and a staunch advocate of free markets, Trump's tariffs hit like a slap. Despite the White House's surprising retreat, the EU will be subject to a minimum tax of 10%. Additionally, steel, aluminum, and cars will face a punitive tax of 25%. Trump threatened to impose higher taxes on foreign-sourced medicines, a valuable sector for Europeans. In an environment where transatlantic relations have deteriorated at a dizzying pace and the American market is becoming increasingly prohibitive, Brussels is seeking economic opportunities that could partially offset the shockwaves created by Trump. China quickly emerged as a potential option. Thanks to a rapidly growing middle class that is increasingly wealthy and thus has greater purchasing power for foreign goods, China represents a profitable business partner that could provide European companies with new customers and new investments. This is exactly what they need during a time of stagnant growth at home and political turmoil abroad. According to Eurostat, in 2023, the U.S. was the primary target for EU-made goods (501.9 billion Euro), followed by China (223.5 billion Euro). However, China became the country that brought the most goods to the bloc after the U.S. (516.2 billion Euro). It is significant that just a few days after Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had a phone conversation with Chinese Premier Li Qiang to discuss bilateral issues and the state of the global economy. The official statement from the European Commission included: "President von der Leyen emphasized the responsibility of Europe and China, as the two largest markets in the world, to support a strong trading system based on a free, fair, and level playing field, subject to reform, in response to the widespread disruptions caused by U.S. tariffs." The version released by Beijing was more optimistic, emphasizing a "stable growth momentum" in the relationship. Li told von der Leyen, "China is ready to work with the European side to support the sound and stable development of China-EU relations." This meeting, in which Trump's policies were openly criticized (Li referred to them as "economic bullying"), immediately ignited speculation that the leaders were carefully sowing the seeds for a rapprochement. Von der Leyen, who led a new policy aimed at reducing risks from China during her first term, has softened her tone in recent months. The Commission President now prefers to speak of "operational" foreign policy aimed at establishing a "constructive relationship" with Beijing. The impression of diplomatic thawing was further deepened a few days later when Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez flew to Beijing to meet with President Xi Jinping. Sanchez described China as a "significant partner" in addressing today's challenges and called for abandoning a confrontational approach. Sanchez stated, "Spain advocates for more balanced relations between the European Union and China, for resolving our differences through negotiation, and for greater cooperation in areas of common interest." Subsequently, Brussels and Beijing agreed to revisit the option of "price commitments" (minimum prices) for the long-standing dispute over Chinese-made electric vehicles for the second time. This option had been brought up multiple times last year but had not yielded any progress. Diplomats from member states, traditionally divided on how to deal with China, noted developments without rushing to a decision. A diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said, "The EU wants to be seen as a reliable partner in the world, and it needs to be." "In this sense, the discussion with China is evolving because China looks at us differently. I do not think Europe's approach to China has completely changed, but the winds are shifting." Confirmation: Geopolitical winds may be shifting, but not all are blowing in favor of China. Earlier this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that his army had captured two Chinese citizens fighting alongside Russia on Ukrainian territory. Zelensky later stated that his government had gathered "definitive data" showing that more than 150 Chinese citizens had participated in the war alongside Moscow. Ukrainian security services report that Chinese citizens were recruited by Russia through advertisements on social media, but they cannot confirm whether the central government in Beijing was aware of or involved in the operation. "I think the United States should pay attention to what is happening today. After this, we expect another country supporting Russia's military invasion of Ukraine to side with Russia. This is another one after the Iranian and North Korean armies," he said. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded by saying the claims had "no basis in reality." Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated, "I would like to emphasize that the Chinese government has always urged Chinese citizens to stay away from armed conflict zones." In Brussels, the news, which came just hours after von der Leyen's meeting with Prime Minister Li, was almost like a reality check that dampened the excitement of a potential rapprochement. For the past three years, the EU has been horrified by Beijing's consistently indifferent stance towards Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine, which it has continuously labeled as a "crisis," and the "borderless" partnership established between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin (Xi is expected to attend the May 9 celebrations in Moscow at Putin's invitation. In contrast, Xi refused to go to Belgium for the EU-China summit in July). EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas left no doubt about her disappointment. "It is clear that China is the most important supporter of Russia's war. Without China's support, Russia could not conduct the war to the extent it is carrying it out. We see that 80% of dual-use goods enter Russia through China," Kallas said, referring to the circumvention of Western sanctions. "If China genuinely wants to stop this support, it will have an effect." Beijing's close friendship with Moscow has added to a series of complaints and tensions that have driven EU-China relations to an all-time low. Other tensions include the heavy export of low-cost, Chinese-made products, the extensive use of state subsidies against foreign competitors, protectionist regulations that block access to the Chinese market for Europe, the surveillance of private citizens and companies, the management of the COVID-19 pandemic, aggressive behavior in the Taiwan Strait, pressures on the Uyghur minority in Xinjiang, human rights violations, cyberattacks, and disinformation campaigns. Any coordination between Brussels and Beijing to circumvent Trump's tariffs is unlikely to provide a solution in these long and unrelated open fronts, all of which depend on complex factors outside of the EU's control. While some leaders, like Pedro Sanchez from Spain and Viktor Orban from Hungary, advocate for the rekindling of relations, others remain extremely skeptical. The coalition agreement of the next German government, led by Friedrich Merz, states: "We must acknowledge that systemic competitive elements have come to the fore as a result of China's actions." The contradictions in public discourse—alongside harsh criticisms, calls for closer cooperation—summarize the ongoing challenge of finding a common, uniform line of action among the 27 member states regarding China. This indecision persists even as Beijing stands alongside Russia, which it sees as the bloc's primary adversary, and will continue as the EU seeks new partners to confront the havoc wrought by Trump. Whether these partnerships will be based on true common values or opportunistic pragmatism remains a separate question. Alicja Bachulska, a policy expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), stated, "The current trade discussions with China are not about working more closely with Beijing. Rather, it is about using this moment of strategic uncertainty to negotiate new conditions and a new framework for engagement with China." "This is not a return to 'business as usual.' The EU wants to secure concessions from Beijing, such as viable rules on technology transfers from China or local content requirements, while trying to provide more added value for the European economy. Whether Beijing will be willing to do this remains uncertain."