Daily News 11 04 2025

Important News of the Day

Time Important Country Event Forecast Previous Actual
01:30 New Zealand (NZD) Business NZ PMI (Mar) 54.1 53.2
09:00 United Kingdom (GBP) GDP (MoM) (Feb) 0.1% 0.0% 0.5%
09:00 United Kingdom (GBP) Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) 0.1% -0.5% 1.5%
09:00 United Kingdom (GBP) Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Feb) 0.2% -1.0% 2.2%
09:00 United Kingdom (GBP) Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Feb) 0.4% 0.3% 0.6%
09:00 United Kingdom (GBP) Trade Balance (Feb) -17.30B -18.22B -20.81B
09:00 United Kingdom (GBP) Trade Balance Non-EU (Feb) -7.37B -8.58B
09:00 Germany (EUR) German CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.2% 2.3% 2.2%
09:00 Germany (EUR) German CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
10:00 Switzerland (CHF) SECO Consumer Climate -32 -34 -35
10:00 Türkiye (TRY) Turkish Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) 2.0% 1.1%
10:00 Türkiye (TRY) Turkish Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb) 12.5% 12.2%
12:45 Euro Zone (EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks
13:00 Euro Zone (EUR) Eurogroup Meetings
13:30 United Kingdom (GBP) NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (Mar) 0.6% 0.6%
15:00 China (CNY) New Loans (Mar) 3,020.0B 1,010.0B
15:30 United States (USD) Core PPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.3% 0.1% -0.1%
15:30 United States (USD) PPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.2% 0.1% -0.4%
17:00 United States (USD) Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Apr) 5.0% 6.7%
17:00 United States (USD) Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Apr) 4.3% 4.1% 4.4%
17:00 United States (USD) Michigan Consumer Expectations (Apr) 50.8 52.6 47.2
17:00 United States (USD) Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr) 54.0 57.0 50.8
18:00 United States (USD) FOMC Member Williams Speaks
20:00 United States (USD) U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 489 480
20:00 United States (USD) U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 590 583
22:30 United Kingdom (GBP) CFTC GBP speculative net positions 34.6K
22:30 United States (USD) CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions 167.7K
22:30 United States (USD) CFTC Gold speculative net positions 238.4K
22:30 United States (USD) CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions 15.2K
22:30 United States (USD) CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions -19.0K
22:30 Australia (AUD) CFTC AUD speculative net positions -75.9K
22:30 Japan (JPY) CFTC JPY speculative net positions 121.8K
22:30 Euro Zone (EUR) CFTC EUR speculative net positions 51.8K

A trustee has been appointed to 24 companies, including İmamoğlu Construction.

image

It was reported that the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office and the Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (TMSF) appointed direct trustees for 24 companies owned by 101 individuals and supervisory trustees for 28 companies.

It was learned that trustees were appointed to 24 companies within the scope of investigations in which Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IBB) Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and about 100 others were detained on March 19. According to a report in Habertürk, among the companies that were assigned trustees are İmamoğlu Construction, Nuhoğlu Construction, ASOY Construction, and Karsal Knitting Inc. The Chief Public Prosecutor's Office had opened an investigation against İmamoğlu and those detained with him on charges of "being a leader of a criminal organization," "being a member of a criminal organization," "extortion," "bribery," "qualified fraud," "unlawfully obtaining personal data," and "tampering with a tender." It was stated that the trustees were appointed within the scope of these investigations.

The trial of 'Akın Gürlek' was postponed to June 16. The hearing of the case opened against İmamoğlu due to his statements directed at Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor Akın Gürlek, who is currently detained at Marmara Prison in Silivri, was also held on Friday. It was reported that the trial was postponed to June 16. Speaking at the hearing, İmamoğlu said, "Years ago, I followed the Ergenekon conspiracy case within this campus. I am detained today because I won against the will that says whoever wins Istanbul wins Turkey. I am here because I won the Istanbul elections three times. I am here because I was determined as a presidential candidate for the next election by the will of fifteen and a half million people. I am here because I opposed lies, corruption, and plunder while managing the city."

The U.S. will not lead the military alliance group under NATO.

image

England and Germany stepped in as the leaders of the Ramstein group, but it had not been clarified until now whether this was a temporary measure.

Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans stated in an interview with Euronews that the United States would no longer lead the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG), which consists of key allies of Ukraine, and that this role would now be taken over by Europeans. Minister Brekelmans said, "The presidency has been taken over by Germany and England." He added, "I think it's a good thing that we have taken over this role and are meeting regularly. The United States is still participating." He continued, "I believe it's very important for all of us to decide to continue the UDCG, which consists of more than 50 countries, to support Ukraine."

The UDCG, also known as the Ramstein Group, is an alliance comprising 57 countries (all 32 NATO member countries and 25 other nations) and the European Union. This alliance has been providing military equipment to Ukraine since the full-scale invasion. This role, which was once solely undertaken by former Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, has never been led by his successor Pete Hegseth. Since then, England and Germany have stepped in, but it has not been clarified whether this is a temporary measure. Western sources initially stated that the joint presidency of England and Germany was a temporary measure until the Trump administration and the new team fully recognized the file. However, the U.S. Secretary of Defense participated in today’s meeting online. This move came amid a series of other signals from the Trump administration indicating that the U.S. role in NATO was diminishing. Western allies are also preparing for the possibility of thousands of troops being withdrawn from Europe. Currently, there are 100,000 U.S. troops predominantly stationed in Central Europe. Brekelmans expressed hope that if such an announcement were to be made, the U.S. would do so as part of a negotiated process and keep its allies informed of the plans. "If the U.S. decides over time to shift some of its resources to its own region—for homeland defense—or to the Indo-Pacific region or elsewhere, I think the most important thing is that we do this together," he said. "We need a joint plan where they can shift some resources and we, as European countries, can gradually take over." "However, we need to keep the United States on board. They will continue to be indispensable for our security. Keeping NATO strong is also in the interest of the U.S., and they always express this." The U.S. NATO delegation was contacted for comment.

The Israeli army announced that it would dismiss reserve soldiers who condemn the war in Gaza.

image

The retired Israeli Air Force pilot Guy Poran, who led the letter, said, "It is completely irrational and irresponsible to risk the lives of hostages, soldiers, and many more innocent Palestinians when there is a very clear alternative for Israeli policymakers."

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated that it would dismiss air force reservists who signed a letter condemning the war in Gaza, claiming that the letter served only political interests and did not help bring the hostages held by Hamas home. An army official stated that there is no place for any individual, including active reservists, to "exploit their military status while simultaneously participating in conflict." He described this as a breach of trust between commanders and subordinates. The IDF declared that any active reservist who signed the letter would no longer be able to continue their service. It was not specified how many were involved or whether the dismissals had begun. About 1,000 reservists serving in the Israeli Air Force signed a letter published in local media on Thursday, demanding the immediate return of hostages, even at the expense of ending the conflicts. Although the soldiers who signed the letter did not refuse to continue their duties, some stated that they had witnessed or done things that crossed ethical boundaries. This is part of an increasing wave of dissent from Israeli service personnel against the conflict that has been ongoing for 18 months. Guy Poran, the retired Israeli Air Force pilot who led the letter, said, "It is completely irrational and irresponsible to risk the lives of hostages, soldiers, and many more innocent Palestinians when there is a very clear alternative for Israeli policymakers." Poran also added that he did not know if any of the signatories had been dismissed. According to Poran, since the letter was published, dozens more signatures have been collected. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed the letter on Friday, claiming it was written by "a handful of fringe weeds managed by foreign-funded NGOs whose sole aim is to overthrow the right-wing government." Netanyahu announced that anyone encouraging refusal would be immediately dismissed. IDF soldiers are required to stay away from politics and rarely speak about the army or operations. The letter came during a time when Israel was increasing its attacks on Gaza and trying to pressure Hamas to agree to release 59 hostages, more than half of whom are believed to be dead. Civilians in the Gaza Strip are facing severe shortages due to Israel's blockade on food, fuel, and humanitarian aid. Israel aims to seize a large part of Palestinian territory and establish a new security corridor cutting across the region. After Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, the country quickly united behind the war launched against the militant group. However, as the war progressed, divisions increased, with much of the criticism focusing on the rising number of soldiers killed and the non-return of hostages.

Pressure for the release of hostages is mounting. Released hostages and their families are doing everything they can to draw attention to their dire situation and encourage the government to bring the remaining captives home. Meanwhile, the war against Hamas shows no signs of stopping. Since Israel ended an eight-week ceasefire last month, Hamas has stated that it will not enter Gaza further until hostages are released. According to the United Nations, more than 1,000 people have been killed in Gaza since the ceasefire was broken in March. The IDF issued an urgent warning on Friday to residents of certain neighborhoods in northern Gaza, calling for them to evacuate the area immediately. Health officials reported that at least 23 people, including eight women and eight children, were killed in attacks earlier this week.

Chinese leader Xi called for "fair global governance" during his meeting with the Prime Minister of Spain.

image

Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez is visiting China for the third time in two years. The aim of his socialist government is to attract more investment from the Asian giant.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, while trying to win allies amid escalating tariff tensions with the U.S., called on Western countries to support multilateralism and open cooperation. Xi delivered this message during his meeting with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez in Beijing, stating, "Both sides should continue to build a fair and reasonable global governance system, safeguard world peace and security, and promote common development and prosperity." This visit coincides with a complex period between Europe and China. The tariffs announced last week by U.S. President Donald Trump, which were later suspended, could push the European Union to engage in more trade with China, the world's third-largest consumer market. Without mentioning Trump's name or directly referencing the 145% tariff imposed on Chinese goods, Xi emphasized that the "multiple risks and challenges" facing the world can only be overcome through "unity and cooperation."

Sanchez is also expected to meet with executives from Chinese companies producing electric batteries and renewable energy technologies. Speaking after his meeting with Xi, Sanchez said, "We are in favor of more balanced relations between the European Union and China, finding solutions to our existing differences through negotiation, and increasing cooperation in areas of common interest." He added, "Trade wars are not good; no one wins. And this is very clear. The world needs both China and the U.S. to engage in dialogue."

Warnings from Washington
However, before Sanchez's visit to China, there were criticisms from Washington regarding his Asia tour, which also includes Vietnam. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent issued a stern warning to Spain for its attempts to get closer to China. Bessent stated, "Any country trying to get close to China is stabbing itself in the back. Because Chinese manufacturers will try to dump goods in those countries that they cannot sell in the U.S."

Spain's Agriculture Minister Luis Planas responded to this criticism during his remarks in Vietnam, saying, "Developing our trade relations with an important partner like China is not an attitude against anyone. Every country must defend its own interests."

Madrid's Orientation Toward China
Spain, the fourth-largest economy in the Eurozone and a leader in growth, has adopted a less confrontational stance toward China compared to some other EU countries in recent years. Last year, Spain initially supported the EU's proposed tariffs against Chinese-made electric vehicles due to concerns over unfair competition but remained abstained in the final vote. Planas argued that Madrid's approach toward Beijing has contributed to the search for a way out of this crisis by some countries within the EU.

Although Chinese investments in Spain have increased, the country's trade with China is not as intensive as that of Germany and Italy. However, Spain accounts for 20% of China's pork imports. Daniel de Miguel, vice president of the Spanish pork producers' association Interporc, stated, "For us, China is the most important market." Last year, Spain generated 56% of its electricity from renewable sources and needs China's critical raw materials, solar panels, and green technologies. In December, Chinese electric battery company CATL announced a partnership with automotive giant Stellantis to establish a €4.1 billion battery factory in northern Spain. This development was followed by agreements made last year by Chinese companies Envision and Hygreen Energy to establish green hydrogen infrastructure.

A new military aid pledge of 21 billion euros from Ukraine's allies.

image

Once led solely by the United States, the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG), now led by Germany and the United Kingdom, consists of 51 countries and partners.

Key allies of Ukraine from around the world announced on Friday during the UDCG meeting held at NATO headquarters in Brussels that they would provide 21 billion euros in new military support. The group, which was once solely led by the United States and is now led by Germany and the United Kingdom, comprises 51 countries and partners. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated that the announcement, which includes Germany's commitment of 11 billion euros by 2029, represents a record increase in military financing for Ukraine. Within the 21 billion euros, there is also a commitment of 4.5 billion pounds, described by UK Defense Minister John Healey as the largest contribution to date. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov warned that Russia is increasing its military production and noted that Europe is now taking the lead in security assistance. While U.S. Secretary of State Pete Hegseth participated in the meeting online, Umerov told reporters that the United States continues to provide military aid to his country. The lack of air defense capabilities remains a major issue for Kyiv due to Russia's attacks on Ukraine almost every day since March. German Defense Minister Pistorius said, "Air defense is a problem everywhere in the world - we are doing everything we can as quickly as possible."

NDXUSD

Analysis
11 Apr 2025 05:29

The NASDAQ index is trading at 18,343, down 4.19% due to concerns over tariff increases and the trade war with China. The 145% tariffs imposed on China pose a direct risk to technology companies' supply chains and profit margins. In recent weeks, the index has lost nearly 23% in value, indicating a significant wave of selling in the technology sector. Companies leading the decline in the index include MPWR (13.73%), Microchip Tech (13.56%), and APA (12.63%). BlackRock has downgraded its outlook on U.S. stocks from "overweight" to "neutral," while market experts warn that the NASDAQ could experience losses of up to 93% of its real value. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yields remain above 3.6%, and inflation concerns continue to pressure technology stocks. Today's U.S. inflation data, which came in below expectations, has somewhat mitigated the decline in the index, although technical indicators show that investors are closely monitoring the mid-term support level of 17,400. A breakout above the resistance level of 18,350 is needed for recovery, and the index has lost approximately 19% in value since the beginning of the year.

DAXEUR

Analysis
11 Apr 2025 05:28

Germany's leading stock index DAX has recovered after recent developments, trading today at a rise of 7.78% at the 21,400 level. Trump's announcement of a 90-day tariff delay for EU countries created a strong buying response in the index. However, the index is in a recovery effort after a 20% loss experienced in less than a week following Trump's tariffs. The general tariff of 10% imposed on the EU and the 90-day negotiation period have provided short-term relief for Germany's export-driven economy. Deutsche Bank's statement that "the damage is undeniable, but the extent of the damage is still uncertain" reflects cautious optimism in the markets. Barclays PLC shares rose by 10.80%, while automotive and industrial companies partially compensated for previous losses. Expectations that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates in June and signs of recovery in manufacturing PMI data in Germany are among the factors supporting the index. Technically, for the index fluctuating in the 19,000-21,700 band, the 20,000 psychological support level is of critical importance, and if it stays above this level, a continuation of the recovery towards 22,000 and subsequently 23,000 levels is expected.

WTIUSD

Analysis
11 Apr 2025 05:25

WTI crude oil is trading at $60.07 per barrel, down 3.64% due to Trump's tariff increases on China and concerns over the trade war. Earlier today, oil prices fell to as low as $58.76, continuing to be under pressure as global growth and demand concerns rise. The Trump administration's imposition of a total 145% tariff on China poses a risk of negatively affecting the Chinese economy and consequently oil demand. The decision by OPEC+ to increase production by 1.25 million barrels per day starting in May also deepens concerns about oversupply. The crude oil stock data released in the U.S. showed an unexpected increase of 6.165 million barrels, indicating an abundance of supply. Goldman Sachs revised its WTI crude oil forecast for 2025 from $68 per barrel to $58 per barrel. Technically, if WTI breaks the critical support at $58, it could decline to $55 per barrel, but it is expected to recover towards $65 per barrel if trade tensions ease. While the short-term outlook remains negative, it is notable that prices have lost about 27% from the $62.35 per barrel level.

XAUUSD

Analysis
11 Apr 2025 05:24

Gold prices have reached record levels, trading at $3,179 per ounce with a rise of 3.02%, due to increasing global economic uncertainties and escalating trade tensions. Trump's decision to raise the tariff rate on China to 145% and China's statement that "we will fight to the end" have increased demand for safe havens. The drop in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 2.4% has strengthened expectations that the Fed may cut interest rates in May, further enhancing gold's appeal. From a technical perspective, the yellow metal is trading close to record high levels and is attempting to break the resistance at $3,275 today. While the RSI indicator shows strong upward momentum, analysts are targeting a short-term range of $3,185 to $3,205 for gold. As demand for physical gold and central banks' efforts for reserve diversification continue, the People's Bank of China is also maintaining its gold purchases. As long as the support levels of $2,950 to $3,040 are held, gold prices are expected to maintain an upward trend in the medium term. It is anticipated that gold has gained nearly 25% in the last quarter and that deepening trade wars could further increase demand for gold.

GBPUSD

Analysis
11 Apr 2025 05:23

The GBP/USD pair is trading close to the 1.3000 level, rising by 0.75% due to positive effects from recent developments in the US-China trade tensions. Trump's decision to delay tariffs for 90 days on most countries while raising tariffs on China to 145% has partially increased risk appetite in the markets and supported the Pound. The Bank of England's more cautious stance on interest rate cuts compared to the European Central Bank has strengthened the recovery in the pair. Lower-than-expected inflation data and an increase in unemployment benefit claims in the US have put pressure on the dollar while helping the Pound gain value. Market targets have revised the outlook for GBP/USD to "neutral-positive", and it is anticipated that if the 1.29-1.30 range is exceeded, the movement towards the 1.31-1.32 resistance levels will continue. The upcoming UK GDP data is crucial for further upward movement.

EURUSD

Analysis
11 Apr 2025 05:22

The EURUSD pair is experiencing significant volatility due to global trade tensions stemming from Trump's 145% tariffs on China. The pair is showing a strong upward trend, trading today with a 2.24% increase near the 1.1200 level. As Trump announced a tariff policy that grants a 90-day delay for other countries while raising customs duties on China from 104% to 125% and then to a total of 145%, intense selling pressure has emerged on the dollar. The expectation of a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the European Central Bank's meeting on April 17 and the Fed's inflation concerns stemming from tariffs have shifted the balance in favor of the Euro. The inflation data released in the US falling below market expectations (CPI dropped to 2.4%) accelerated the weakening of the dollar. Technically, the pair is fluctuating in the short term within the 1.1150-1.1280 range, with closures above 1.1280 indicating a three-year peak. As uncertainties in the trade war continue, some major investment banks have raised their 12-month forecast for EUR/USD to 1.14.